Decisions, decisions ...

understanding numbers in a very personal sense

I’ve never been good at maths. So making a statistic-based decision isn’t easy. But I had a lot of help. Most significantly, an entire hour’s chat with an oncologist.

The very, very good news was that there was an 87% chance the initial surgery back in February was sufficient to ensure my 5 year survival. Those odds could be lifted to 92% by immunotherapy.

However, ramping up the immune response to tackle any remaining cancer cells also risked inducing some autoimmune diseases which might prove difficult to live with.

Arthritis, hypothyroidism and type 1 diabetes are all things I’d be happier to avoid. Each carried about a 1% risk. I was surprised to hear that my biggest risk was a second heart attack. A 7% additional risk added to my already “moderate” chances.

I was reassured by the idea of being reviewed by the skin team every 3 months and having full body CT scans every 6 months, regardless of a “yes” or “no” to immunotherapy.

The tipping point was viewing declining treatment as “not yet” with the option to change if more melanomas showed up.

All in all, having gone into the appointment leaning towards “yes please” with regard to treatment, I left feeling pretty happy with the idea of not opting for immunotherapy. Not yet, at any rate.